Present, facing the world economy to adjust to a new pattern in transition, China's foreign trade, external demand has obviously weakened, for a long time to support the resource cost advantage of the rapid growth of China's foreign trade has changed, the transformation of foreign trade development mode has become the urgent task of China's foreign trade development. "Emancipating the mind, seek truth from facts, unite forward-looking" Deng Xiaoping's speech in the CPC Central Committee meeting in December 13, 1978, this sentence is 30 years of reform and opening up of China's rapid economic development has laid a theoretical foundation. Present, facing the world economy to adjust to a new pattern in transition, China's foreign trade, external demand has obviously weakened, long-standing support resources cost advantage of the rapid growth of China's foreign trade has changed, change the mode of development of foreign trade to become an urgent task of China's foreign trade development, the phrase words or can once again become at this stage to maintain the stable development of China's foreign trade successfully through a difficult period, achieving a successful transformation of the theoretical basis and guiding. China's foreign trade "slow growth" General Administration of Customs announced in January 2012 China's import and export trade data have been expected, the month of China's foreign trade import and export value of $ 272.6 billion, down 7.8% over the same period last year. Which exports $ 149.94 billion, down 0.5 percent; imports 122.66 billion U.S. dollars, down 15.3 percent. Since January, the Chinese Lunar New Year, four days less than the same period last year. Therefore, the data only from January can not judge China's foreign trade once again entered a downward trend in 2009, but if the contact data to see since the second half of 2011, China's import and export trade has been showing signs of "Suspension". 2011, China's import and export of the overall increase was 22.5% lower than the overall increase of 5 and 10 percentage points in November and December, respectively. Especially in export growth since August 2011, are kept below 18%, and increase monthly reduction, export growth was only 13.8% and 13.4% in November and December, respectively, lower than the overall annual export growth of 6.5 and 6.9 percentage points.
In January 2012, import and export, import and export ring than they were reduced by 18.1%, 14.2% and 22.5%. The use of seasonal adjustment method to adjust China's import and export, export and import in January year-on-year growth of only 6.2%, 10.3% and 1.5%, import and export of "slow growth" has become a fact of at this stage of China's import and export trade. The traditional theory of international trade costs, exchange rates are the main factors that affect a country's foreign trade growth, from the current situation, labor, raw material costs, RMB exchange rate formation of pressure of China's foreign trade growth has also become China's foreign trade shows a slow growth pattern of the main reasons. In 2011, the largest province of Guangdong, Zhejiang and other trade labor supply and demand ratio of 1:2 to 1:3, the corporate average salary rose 10 percent to 20 percent, the overall costs of many businesses has increased by 40%. Appreciation of the renminbi become a troubled foreign trade enterprises, since the July 2005 exchange rate reform, the RMB against the U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate appreciation of the cumulative 25%, equivalent to reduced profit margins of 25% of the export enterprises. Shenzhen Foreign Investment Enterprises Association in 20 different industries and size of foreign-invested enterprises by the sample survey shows that more than 90% of enterprises report that profit margins decline, with an average decrease of 10% to 15%. Declining margins in the enterprise, 65% of companies fell more than 10%; 35% of the enterprises fell below 10%, while 15 percent of enterprises in the operating loss. There are signs that the traditional advantages of supporting the rapid growth of China's foreign trade has been weakened. While the new growth theory perspective, the key factors affect a country's foreign trade growth should also include the industry level and innovation capability. China has sufficient human resources for science and technology, science and technology human resources total more than 3850 million, the total number of R & D staff of 109 people, respectively, ranking first in the world and the second place, but innovation is still very low, medium and large enterprises R & D investment accounted for 0.71% of sales revenue, only 0.56% of the industrial enterprises above designated size, 99% of the enterprises did not apply for a patent, only three ten thousandths of the enterprise with core intellectual property rights.
China's scientific and technological progress contribution rate of 20 ~ 30 percentage points lower than in developed countries, the scientific and technological achievements conversion rate of 50 to 60 percentage points lower than in developed countries. 15 iron and steel, nonferrous metals, petrochemical, power, coal, building materials industry, the technical level is generally lower than the international 5 to 10 years behind, and some even 20 to 30 years behind. The uneven level of industrialization and industrial innovation, lack of capacity also affects the international competitiveness of China's industrial products, China's foreign trade to the lack of a strong growth of endogenous motivation. The current situation, to seek steady growth rather than rapid growth more in line with the objective reality of the China External Trade Development. The steady growth of the key is to strengthen the coordination of trade policy and industrial policy. Due to historical reasons, China's trade policy and industrial policy-making belong to different departments, trade policy needs more consideration, the formulation of industrial policy is mainly based on domestic trade policy can affect the layout of the industry to some extent, and structural changes, but did not form a cohesive force in the development to a certain extent, the power shortage problems will appear. Therefore, China's foreign trade policy formulation, to give more consideration to the actual situation of China's industrialization level of development and industrial development; to promote the country's industrialization process as well as industrial restructuring, but also need to take into account the special status of China's "world factory" and major trading reality. Follow the laws of the market expansion of imports Substantial reduction in imports is the most talked about feature of the month. In 2011, China's import growth rate suddenly dropped to 11.8%, lower than the overall increase of 13.1 percentage points in January 2012, a negative growth, a decline of 15.3%. From the structural analysis of the January imports fell mainly derived from three factors First, the processing trade imports fell 19.9 percent, more than general trade decline of 10.1 percentage points; mechanical and electrical products import decreased by 22.3%, reducing the amount of $ 13.858 billion , a decrease of 64.1% of the amount of the total; Third, the import of primary products, the overall decrease in the larger of the first five commodities were iron ore and concentrate, in primary forms of plastic, steel, copper and lumber, the amount of year-on-year were reduced by 23.3%, 29.7%, 37.9%, 32.5% and 25.6%, the total reduction of the amount of $ 4.947 billion, accounting for 22.9 percent of the amount of the reduction in imports; Asian market imports, the largest decline in imports were India, Japan, Malaysia Taiwan and Singapore, respectively, a decrease of 37.4%, 35.7%, 28.4%, 27.8% and 26.5%. In addition, lower import prices has also led to a reduction in the amount of imports, such as iron ore and soybeans, the average import price fell by 10.9% and 5.8% respectively. Kelly Burns foreign trade multiplier theory "that the increase in the imports of one country, make similar domestic production shrink, paid to the foreign currency increases, will enable these enterprises to increased unemployment, reduced income, consumption be reduced , resulting in the decline of national income. 30 years of reform and opening up China's re-exports of light imports of foreign trade strategy is based on this theory. Since the financial crisis, China began to implement strategies to actively expand import, on the one hand, in order to promote trade balance, on the other hand, because the rapid accumulation of capital of the domestic currency, making the theoretical basis is not consistent with China's actual development. China to expand imports strategies include simplifying import administration, lower provisional import tax rate of some commodities, and promote domestic enterprises to increase imports from some big trade deficit with its trading partners, and in stages to give zero-tariff treatment for LDCs, to a certain extent, these policies promote the rapid growth of imports. 2010 and 2011, Chinese imports increased by 38.7% and 24.9%. From December last year, the reduction of import growth and the decline of the import data in January of this year and can not come to the conclusion that China's imports will gradually reduce, the reduction of imports did not show a continuous downward trend from the 2011 situation. Imported this month "crash" is also given some warning, imports on the national economy to promote the role of theory and practice should be further deepen? Excessive government restrictions on imports will play the opposite effect? ??At present, many developing countries have embarked on the expansion of the import policy, 2012, Vietnam will be the ASEAN Free Trade Area member states to cut nearly 200 kinds of tax rate reduction of 5 to 10 percentage points in 2011; Brazil will be production equipment, information and telecommunications products new list of 196 kinds of new products imported to the implementation of tariff reduction or tax exemption; Thailand also raised the exemption of machinery, spare parts and finished goods import tariff plan. China also needs to step up planning, import strategy to let the market call the shots more and more in line with actual market demand and the objective law, if the import strategies to promote the process of the market in China, China's economic restructuring and a new round of reform and opening up will undoubtedly have a more far-reaching significance.
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GoodLandShoes date 2.21.2012